1. THE VIDEO OF THE ARCHBISHOP OF YORK CUTTING UP HIS CLERICAL COLLAR HAS BEEN MOVED TO www.zimcrisis.blogspot.com 2. "HOW TO DO THE FINAL PUSH WITHOUT FIRING A SINGLE SHOT" HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH PART TWO. PLEASE CLICK HERE!!! 3. VIDEO OF LISBON ANTI-MUGABE DEMO POSTED AT www.zimfinalpush8.blogspot.com
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- January 2008 (9)
The welcome entry of Dr Makoni into the political fray has generated intense mixed reactions. To some it has generated extraordinary excitement whereas to others it has meant skepticism. I personally believe that Dr Makoni faces a mammoth task if the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn project is to succeed. Politics is a game of strategy, structures and timing and Dr Makoni can still win it if he can craft the formula right but at the same time he can be buried for good if he miscalculates his move. Like what Obama always say, a struggle against vested interests will not be easy .It will need a lot of ingenuity and several options and alternatives to build and sustain the momentum. It is in this context that I honestly believe that Makoni faces a tough task. Will he be equal to the task? What strategies can he employ to victory?
One of the greatest failures of the current opposition has been to come up with a single strategy to campaign in both the urban and rural areas.Dr Makoni can avoid it by coming with the following strategies
In the urban areas, the constituencies can be divided into the low and high density surburbs.It will be relatively easy for Dr Makoni to win the hearts of people in the low density suburbs since they are a propertied class who are more likely to favor an orderly transition as compared to an uncertain transition if Tsvangirai is to win given that Makoni seem to have some support within the security structure which Tsvangirai does not have. The majority of captains of industry who are likely to support Makoni also reside in these areas. What is necessary is for the Makoni team to field credible candidates who are electable. The major campaign strategy will be small group meetings, lobbying influential individuals through their clubs etc and even establishing a call centre where volunteers can use the phone to reach out to the electrorate.The message should be to encourage the voters to go in their thousands and vote
In the high density suburbs, a lot of work needs to be done. Firstly, building structures to each and every street in the ghettos. There is also need for party visibility by printing T/shirts and other paraphernalia showing the party symbol so that people may be aware of the symbol. After forming the core structure, there is need to mobilize a massive rally, say at Zimbabwe grounds so that Dr Makoni quash the rumors' that have been talked by his detractors who are saying he is an agent of ZANU PF.The first major rally must be a psychological game of numbers. Massive organization is needed. Its success or failure will set the tone for the whole campaign. A massive rally will create momentum and win all the skeptics to Dr Makoni's side. He can also take advantage of the rally to tell the urbanites to send the message of Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn to the rural areas which is very difficult to penetrate. He can cap it all by also making impromptu door to door campaigns or walkabouts in the high density areas. In short there is need for a blitz in the urban high density areas. There is need for a permanent presence by activists until election time that should encourage people to vote.
In the rural areas, it will be where the decisive battle will be fought. The first stage where this battle will be won or lost is the selection of candidates. Unlike in urban areas where the candidate do not matter per se since people vote for parties of the cult of their leaders, in the rural areas it's the reverse. This is one of the blunders that the opposition has been making before because the rural folk wants an MP they can relate to .Hence there is need to select well known people who already has goodwill in the community.Prof Moyo's victory in Tholotsho in 2005 shows the importance of this point. Moyo quickly realized that he needed a political base and started doing some developmental things that endeared him to the people. There are so many well meaning citizens in the rural areas that have been extending their generosity in these areas and they must be identified, persuaded and registered. If it is late to field them as candidates, then they can be part of the campaign team.
Once the candidates and credible teams to campaign in specific areas are identified, the campaign must roll into gear. From the beginning, they must use people in the area and underground methods to campaign like door to door one on one because early rallies will result in ZANU PF employing violence and intimidating the people. In areas where the notorious ZANU PF militias are strong, it may be important to infiltrate them and finally recruit them. A campaign blitz with open distribution of T/shirts, party regalia etc must only be implemented in the final weeks of the campaign where it will be late for the ZANU PF intimidation machinery to respond. Hence those who are still in ZANU PF who back Makoni must only come in the open in rural areas in the final week of the campaign.
Another urgent strategy in the rural areas is to clandestinely recruit village heads and headman who haven't benefited much from ZANU PF patronage. It's only the chiefs who have benefited and hence the village heads in particular are ready for harvesting. These will be decisive for the rural vote.
To conclude, the campaign strategies will never be cast in stone. What is needed is ambushing the regime and at the same time knowing their strategies in advance for when the hunted know how the hunter hunts, then the hunting is over.
Garikai Chimuka, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
The ZANU PF government continue to persecute the Church of God. 'Eight Church leaders, including a blind pastor were arrested during a meeting in front of 400 worshippers and detained in police cells in Kadoma (120 km South West of Harare).'
The arrested Church leaders are Jonathan Gokovah, Pastor Raymond Motsi, Pius Wakatama, Pastor Ancelimo Magaya, Pastor Wilson Mugabe, Pastor Zvizai Chiponda, Lawrence Berejena and Gerald Mubaiwa.
Pastor Moyo states, "The meeting was for Christians who felt they cannot remain silent while the country burns with companies closing, inflation (26 000%) hitting everyone hard and the majority of people suffering."
The Pastors declared, "We are not aligned to any political party and we don't mind who rules this country as long as they are accountable and respect the rights of all citizens. We are just against the prevailing situation characterised by looting and misgovernance."
The ZANU PF government of President Robert Mugabe is dictatorship and has murdered tens of thousands of innocent Zimbabweans. Dictatorship is satanic. Refusing to resist dictatorship is resisting God. Christians have not only rights but obligation to remove tyranny.
When ZANU PF was murdering 40 000 Ndebele speaking people, the Zimbabwean Church was silent. When ZANU PF government was invading farms, and embezzling national wealth and abusing human rights the Church was saying that it has nothing to do with politics.
Poverty and massive starvation is God's judgement to the ZIMBABWEAN Church for ignoring social injustice, helping the poor and political immorality.
l remember six years ago praying that God raise up Church leaders and Christians in Zimbabwe who will challenge wickedness of our political leaders. The State determines whether people live with peace and have a good economy that provide opportunities for many people. Praise God! Now Christian leaders are rising up against political immorality even when the country is completely on ground, with millions starving to death.
The trial for the above mentioned Church leaders has been remanded to 5 March 2008. The Church has been ravaged by criminal or satanic civil rulers. Please continue to pray for change to take place in Zimbabwe.
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Foundation of Reason & Justice
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By Garikai Chimuka
The recent announcement by Mugabe that elections will be held on 29 March has led to a clear dilemma within the opposition movement, civic society, churches and the academia in Zimbabwe. Some quarters have called for the opposition, in particular the MDC, to boycott the elections on the basis that the conditions on the ground are not conducive for a free and fair election. Some like Dr Madhuku are even quoted as having said that Mugabe has already won the elections. The bitterness in the opposition camp emanate mainly from the Thabo Mbeki led initiative in which the opposition wanted a new constitution before the elections. However, I strongly believe that its naïve for any politician in Zimbabwe to ever dream that Mugabe can legislate himself out of power en route to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity. It is on this basis that the only way forward for the MDC is to quickly unite, campaign vigorously and defeat Mugabe come 29 March 08
The issue of whether or not to participate in the elections to me is a mere academic dilemma for I believe that the practical reality on the ground behoves the opposition to get into the ring and fight.Malcom X has always been clear that in a revolutionary struggle against oppression, people have to use all means necessary to bring about freedom and liberty. Given the configuration of global, continental and regional geopolitics, the only feasible option for the opposition to assume power in Zimbabwe is through elections.Withiout any other viable alternative like mass action or armed struggle, the opposition will have to participate in the elections with the kind of hope that gripped the nation in 2000.Boycotting elections without any other option to remove Mugabe will be merely surrendering the struggle and handing Mugabe victory on the silver plate
Those who are campaigning for a boycott choose not to tell people that if the MDC boycotts the elections, other smaller parties funded by the regime will mushroom and contest giving Mugabe some modicum of legitimacy.Moreso, within the MDC itself, there are some politicians who believe strongly in participating. Most legislators in the MDC who have tested power will never take heed of election boycott and will definitely participate. This can lead to the fragmentation of the opposition and that is exactly what Mugabe is looking for. Analysts must never forget that the unfortunate MDC split of 2005, though it may have been based on other core differences, was brought to the fore by the Senate boycott politics
Secondly, those who are calling for the boycott don't tell the people of any viable alternative. If the MDC boycotts the polls, what other strategy must it craft to gain power and launch a new beginning for Zimbabwe? The opposition has tried mass actions, demonstrations, diplomatic pressure and negotiation without any success in the past. So if they boycott, what will be the alternative strategy except colossal irrelevance?
Thirdly, there is a serious misconception in Zimbabwe today that Mugabe rigs the elections in a crude way of stuffing ballots or during the counting. The truth of the matter is that previously, the elections have been rigged before the voting through intimidation, vote buying through chiefs, violence and reducing polling stations in MDC strongholds so that few opposition supporters vote like they did in Harare and all major towns in 2002. These are the main methods how ZANU PF has rigged and continues to rig the elections. Otherwise if the elections were rigged after voting, I believe that the MDC would have never won 57 seats in 2000 and given Mugabe's arrogance, he would have never allowed the opposition to control Harare and all urban centers
Therefore the major lesson the opposition should have learnt from the previous election is that if opposition supporters overwhelmingly votes against Mugabe, it will be very difficult for him to rig the elections. This is the actual challenge confronting the MDC today: How to mobilize people to believe again and vote in their multitudes on 29 March 2008.
The first step is to make sure that the majority of urban voters are going to vote in their millions. The challenge is about mobilizing. Talking about boycotts will only alienate the economically battered urban opposition supporters who may then ignore to vote. If the MDC fails to fight apathy in the urban areas, then ZANUPF will bury them for ZANUPF supporters in urban areas are those who are benefiting in one way or the other from the current crisis and will definitely go and vote as a basis for personal survival. Therefore the challenge for the opposition is to make sure that people in the urban areas check that they are on the voter's roll, know which ward they are going to vote and finally vote in their millions on voting day. If there is overwhelming turnout in the urban areas, it does not need a rocket scientist to know that such a turnout will be indicative of an MDC victory in the cities.
On the other hand, the rural vote will be problematic because ZANU PF uses vote buying, for example farm implements, food, fertilizer etc.They also use chiefs to force all the people to vote meaning that when there is overwhelming turnout in the rural areas, and ZANU PF expects victory. The MDC thus needs to go to the rural areas and campaign. They need to find ways of breaking the chiefs' hold on the rural populace. Mugabe has rewarded the chiefs with cars, electrified homes, salaries and political power thus the chiefs know that they must defend him in order to continue benefiting .The MDC must however realize that sub-chiefs and village headmen who are on the ground are bitter because they are seeing chiefs getting rich every day whilst they are getting nothing or peanuts. The message to the MDC is that sub chiefs and village headmen are ready for harvesting .Jonathan Moyo used that strategy and won in Tsholotsho in 2005 and that strategy can be replicated throughout Zimbabwe. The conditions on the ground as of today are favorable for a shocking rejection of Mugabe in the rural areas in a way he has never expected.
Hence it is very clear that the opposition needs to immediately craft strategies, deploy their officials on the ground in each and every corner of Zimbabwe and send Mugabe packing come 29 MARCH 2008.The rural folk who Mugabe thinks he can continuously manipulate for his political survival are ready for change. The MDC leadership must remove their gloves and fight. With the right urban and rural campaign strategy, victory is certain!!
Garikai Chimuka (firstname.lastname@example.org) is an analyst based at Wageningen University, The Netherlands
PLEASE CHECK THESE OUT!!!!!!
- "POLITICAL POVERTY.... IS IT IN THE MDC OR IN THE NGOs?" by T CHAMANYAWI.
- "THE NGO SHARKS THAT FEED ON THE ZIM CRISIS!" by TAMBANAVO CHAMANYAWI!!
- "ARTHUR MUTAMBARA...THE WORLD's LUCKIEST POLITICIAN!" by TAMBANAVO CHAMANYAWI!!!
- STATEMENT BY MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI ON THE DECISION TO JOIN ZANU-PF IN GOVERNMENT!!!
- REV HOVE'S PERSONAL APPEAL!!
- NDEBELE BROTHER GIVES VERY SAD STORY ABOUT "GUKURAHUNDI"!!!
- PHOTOS OF REV HOVE'S WOUNDS FROM BULLET WOUNDS AT SADC PRETORIA DEMO!!!
- "ARSONISTS ATTEMPT TO KILL MY FAMILY IN ZIM!" by Rev M S Hove.
- " I WISH NO MERRY XMAS TO NOBODY!" by Rev Mufaro Stig Hove!
- "BATTLE OF THE TWO ELLIOTS THAT NEVER WAS!" by ELLIOT PFEBVE!!!
- "PROPERTY RIGHTS AN AVENUE TO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT" by H KUNDISHORA!!!
- "MBEKI MISLEADING G8 ON ZIMBABWE!!!" by GARIKAI CHIMUKA!!!
- "WHAT ARE THE AFRICAN INTERESTS IN ZIMBABWE???" asks Hillary Kundishora.
- THE SA COMMUNIST PARTY ASKED ZANU-PF WHY THEIR "REVOLUTION" IS NOT ACCEPTED BY STRATEGIC SECTIONS OF ZIMBABWEANS!
- "The Brand Zimbabwe" by Hillary Kundishora.
- "Polokwane Congress Must Uphold Mandela Legacy" by Garikai Chimuka.
- "To What Extent Does Economic Strategy and Planning Reflect Kleptocracy?" by Hillary Kundishona.
- "HOW TO DO THE FINAL PUSH WITHOUT FIRING A SINGLE SHOT!" by Rev M S Hove.
- REV HOVE ASKED TO COMMENT ON ZIMBABWEANS ALLEGEDLY COMMITTING CRIMES IN SA!!!
- COMMENTS ON THE NEED FOR AN ARMED STRUGGLE!
- HOT DEBATE FOLLOWING: "THE SHARKS THAT FEED ON THE ZIM CRISIS!"
- "TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION" by Garikai Chimuka.
- "GENDER AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT" by Hillary Kundishora.